LAS VEGAS (September 1, 2023)—The Las Vegas Aces (31-6) have 3 games remaining on their 2023 regular season schedule, and they control their own destiny when it comes to seeding in the postseason—run the table to close out the year in order to snag the top spot in this year’s playoffs.

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Next up for Las Vegas is the Seattle Storm (11-25), who are coming off of a 72-61 road win over Los Angeles. Although the Storm have been eliminated from postseason contention, they can still play the role of spoiler. Their victory over the Sparks dropped Los Angeles into 9th place in the standings (the top 8 teams make the playoffs), and each of their remaining 4 games are against teams battling for playoff seeding or for their playoff lives—September 2 at Las Vegas; September 6 at Atlanta; September 8 at Dallas; September 10 vs. Los Angeles.

Seattle also boasts the WNBA’s leading scorer this year in Jewell Loyd. With Sue Bird’s retirement and Breanna Stewart’s signing with New York as a free agent, the Storm turned the keys to the kingdom over to the 9th year pro. She is averaging 24.2 points per game which would be the second highest scoring average in league history should she maintain it throughout the end of the season (Diana Taurasi, 2006, Phoenix, 25.3 ppg). Her 102 made 3-pointers this year are the 5th most in league history, and her 220 made free throws are the 3rd most.

Ezi Megbagor has also taken on an expanded role with the Storm this year, as the 23-year-old is averaging career highs in scoring (13.8 ppg), rebounding (8.1 rpg), assists (2.3 apg), blocks (1.9 bpg), and steals (1.2). She remains one of the most efficient scorers in the league making 51.2 percent of her field goal attempts and 35.7 percent of her shots from distance.

Despite the efforts of these two 2023 All-Stars, the Storm have the least efficient offense in the league (96.8 OER), and are 8th in defensive efficiency (102.8).

NEXT UP

The Aces close out the 2023 regular season with a road-home set against the Phoenix Mercury (September 8 and 10). Friday’s tip at Phoenix’s Footprint Center is 7 pm PT, while Sunday’s start time at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas is 12 pm PT.

BREAKING DOWN THE TIE-BREAKERS

Although there are just 10 days remaining in the regular season, there are still a number of tie-breaker scenarios that could determine who gets the No. 1  seed in the 2023 WNBA Playoffs—the Las Vegas Aces or the New York Liberty. Below is our best effort to walk you through the most likely options. We will update this information in future LasVegasAces.com stories between now and September 10.

Win And We’re In

If the Aces win all 3 of their remaining games, they finish with a 34-6 record.

If New York runs the table, they are 33-7, so Las Vegas gets the No. 1 seed outright.

What if We Lose One?

If Las Vegas goes 2-1 over its last 3 games, they finish with a 33-7 record.

If New York runs the table, they would also be 33-7.

The first tie-breaker is head-to-head record, and the teams split their 4 regular season meetings.

The next tiebreaker is best winning percentage against teams with records of .500 or above. At the moment there are only 2 other non-LV/NY teams with winning records—Connecticut and Dallas. As of September 1, 3 other teams could get to the .500 mark—Atlanta, Minnesota and Washington.

 

If you want to see the math, keep reading below. But if you just want to know the scenarios, here you go …

Long story short—Aces fans should root for Minnesota down the stretch, as they are involved in any scenario where the Aces get the tiebreaker.

THE MATH

Here are the W-L records for Las Vegas and New York against each of these teams, assuming New York wins out. Feel free to check the math and drop us an email if we are wrong.

 

Las Vegas is 5-2 against Connecticut and Dallas. New York is 4-1, and plays each of those teams one more time this year. To get to 33-7, the Liberty will have won both of those meetings, giving them an 8-3 record against teams at or above .500, while the Aces would be 7-4. Thus, New York gets the one seed in any scenario in which they are tied with the Aces with a 33-7 record, and Connecticut and Dallas are the only other teams with records of .500 or above.

Atlanta plays Minnesota, Seattle, Washington and Dallas to close out the season. Should they go 3-1 to get to .500, and no other team reach .500, Las Vegas and New York would both be 11-4 against teams with .500 records or above. The next tiebreaker is scoring differential against the team with you whom you are tied. New York outscored Las Vegas by 17 total points in their 4 meetings, so in this scenario, the Liberty win the tiebreaker.

Minnesota plays Atlanta, Phoenix, Chicago and Indiana to close out the season. Should they get to .500, and no other team reach .500, Las Vegas would be 11-4, and New York would be 10-4 against teams with records of .500 or better, giving the Aces the tiebreaker.

Washington plays Los Angeles, Phoenix, Atlanta and New York to close out the season. Should they get to .500 and no other team reach .500, Las Vegas would be 9-5 against teams with records of .500 or above, and New York would be 11-4 giving the Liberty the tiebreaker.

Should Atlanta and Minnesota each get to .500, Las Vegas would be 15-4 against teams with records of .500 or above, and New York would be 13-5. Las Vegas gets the tiebreaker.

Should Minnesota and Washington get to .500, Las Vegas and New York would both be 13-5 against teams with records of .500 or above. The next tiebreaker is scoring differential against the team with you whom you are tied. New York outscored Las Vegas by 17 total points in their 4 meetings, so the Liberty win the tiebreaker.

Should Atlanta and Washington get to .500, Las Vegas would be 13-5 against teams with records of .500 or above, and New York would be 14-5. New York gets the tiebreaker.

Should Atlanta, Minnesota and Washington get to .500, Las Vegas would be 17-5 against teams with records of .500 or above, and New York would be 16-6. Las Vegas gets the tiebreaker.

TWO LOSSES

What if the Aces drop two games down the stretch, and New York loses one causing both teams to be tied with 32-8 records?

That’s too many scenarios for us to go through at the moment.